The pro baseball season may have finished, even here in Arizona, but it's been going strong in South and Central America, with a large number of Diamondbacks prospects (and some current players), both pitchers and hitters, seeing action. Leagues have been going on in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Hawaii, so with most of the seasons now over or winding-down, let's take a look and see what the results have been like so far.

We'll start in Hawaii where, as noted elsewhere, Hawaiian Winter Ball looks unlikely to continue, having not extended its contract with MLB, meaning this could therefore be its final year. Three Diamondbacks were members of the West Oahu CaneFires this season, with Mark Hallberg perhaps the most impressive. The infielder, who turned 23 last month, had been nothing special at High-A Visalia, batting .283, but enjoyed his time in the 49th state, batting .362 with a .906 OPS. The best raw numbers went to Cyle Hankerd, however, with a line of .318/.392/.545, leading the team in HR and RBI (5 and 33 respectively, in 25 games). That's the same number of homers as he had in 125 games for Double-A Mobile. Finally, our new catcher, James 'Jack' Skelton also took part, and continued his habitual on-base tear, with an impressive .405 OBP.

The Mexican Winter League had two Arizona starting pitchers - though one, Edgar Gonzalez, may or may not make it back to the team in 2009, having been released by the club. He went 4-1 for Hermosillo in seven starts, posting a 4.46 ERA. New Australian left-hander Travis Blackley made ten starts for Mexicali, including a complete game, and went 2-3 with a decent 3.88 ERA in those games [a couple of bad bullpen outings inflated his overall figure to 4.24]. Of particular note was a good K:BB ratio of 3:1 as a starter. No Arizona hitter has appeared in more than six games so far, and the regular season is now in its last week, so we'll move rapidly on.

The Dominican League saw our players appear for Estrellas de Oriente, and was similarly pitcher-heavy. Evan MacLane pulled double duty, appearing both here and Venezuela: between the two, he had twelve starts and a 4.00 ERA. He struggled a bit more in the DWL, being winless in nine outings there, though showed excelled control, allowing eight walks in 41 innings and just nine in 63 overall, compared to 52 strikeouts. Jailen Peguero made 18 apperances out of the 'pen and had a 3.00 ERA, with three saves in five changes. However, he did walk too many people - fourteen in only eighteen innings, along with three wild pitches. On the plus side, opposing hitters batted only .190 off Peguero, but Estrellas still missed the playoffs, winning only 16 of 50 games, so their season is over.

The same issues plagued young southpaw Jordan Norberto, with 14 walks in 17.2 innings of work, but a .212 average against. He only just had his 22nd birthday on December 8th, so is still young enough. He spent both 2007 and 2008 at Class-A South Bend, and having had an ERA above five both times, needs to step things up this year. The other Diamondback to pitch a significant (ten-plus) number of innings in the DWL was Esmerling Vasquez, who made six appearances all told, totaling 13.1 IP, with a 3.38 ERA. He began as a starter, but was shifted to a relief role after walking five batters in his first six innings. That seemed to help, as his K:BB ratio was 6:2 in the remaining 7.1 frames, with only one earned run allowed. He was our minor-league Pitcher of the Year in 2007, but struggled in Tucson last season, where his ERA was 6.82 in 83 innings.

Finally, we move to the Venezuelan Winter League, with a number of fine performances by AZ players. Leading hitter is probably Jesus Merchan, shortstop for the Sidewinders last season. His success is not unexpected, since he batted .339 for Tucson, but his on-base skills were notable. Merchan has given his team a .423 OBP, and decent wheels [4 triples in 79 at-bats], help his OPS reach .980. My first thought was, move to 2B this year in Reno, with the aim to  replace Lopez in 2010. However, he'd then be 29, and his defense seems poor [21 errors in 107 games at SS last year]. Miguel Montero had an interesting winter. He started off very poorly, going just .185 (5-for-27) at the beginning of the year, with Bravos de Margarita. However, after a trade took him to Caribes, Miggy has been en fuego, giving his new team a line of .302/.358/.530, with eight homers in just 149 at-bats. Could probably do with some more walks, and he's K'd more than three times as often, worse than in the majors last season.

Gerardo Parra (above) also impressed observers; he is only 21 but batted .329 for Aguilas de Zulia, leading the team with 124 total bases and 15 SB, on his way to a .908 OPS. He had almost as many walks as strikeouts (31:36), giving him an OBP above .400, and is seen by some as the most likely internal prospect to replace Byrnes [if EB stays his contract]. Our well-known 2008 outfielder, Alex Romero, went one better, getting more walks than strikeouts (19:18), to tack onto a .311 average. However, his familiar lack of power - five extra-base hits in 44 games - means his SLG is lower than his OBP, and the overall OPS of .754 is disappointing.

Moving on to the pitchers, we've already covered Evan MacLane, but the one who stands out was Juan Gutierrez. As noted previously, he had a one-hitter among his 13 starts, for a 5-2 record and 2.63 ERA; even that's after a bad outing last time, before which it was 2.30. His K-rate is good - 56 in 65 innings, compared to 20 walks - and he is keeping the ball in the park. Gutierrez has allowed only a pair of home-runs, one in that most recent start, to franchise-mate Javier Brito. That can't be said for Yusmeiro Petit, who continues to be plagued by the long-ball, to the tune of seven in just 39 innings. Hitters overall are enjoying the Petit Unit, to the tune of .316, and he is still winless after eight starts. His last three outings have resulted in a total of 23 hits and 11 earned runs over 13.1 innings of work. Maybe picking up another starter is a wise idea...

From AZ Central

The Diamondbacks announced Friday that Jeff Moorad, general partner and chief executive officer, is stepping down. Team President Derrick Hall was promoted to President and CEO... Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said. "Jeff was an integral part of the D-Backs’ many achievements on and off of the field since joining the organization in 2004. However, it was necessary for him to tender his resignation with the organization as he pursues the acquisition of the San Diego Padres."

It seems Moorad's purchase of the Padres is a good deal further along than being merely pursued:

Moorad said Friday he heads a "small but significant" group of investors that has an exclusive right to complete the specifics of negotiations with Padres owner John Moores. Moorad said he hopes the transaction can be completed in the next three months. Moorad will maintain his share of Diamondbacks ownership but would have to sell that if his effort to purchase the Padres is successful, Kendrick said. Kendrick would not reveal what share of the team Moorad owns but said "it is not an insignificant amount." Moorad's development of a group to purchase the Padres had reached the point when Major League Baseball rules required him to leave his job with Arizona, Kendrick said.

"We’ve made some mistakes, and we’ll make others. But we feel very good about these signings. This sets a good course." — Jeff Moorad, after signing the Huge Manatee and Troy Glaus. Other things for which Moorad probably needs to be thanked include the trade and extension for - whaddya know - his former client, Shawn Green and the extension given to Eric Byrnes. Good luck, San Diego. You'll need it.

You probably recall the discussion last month, prompted by Jeff Moorad's revelation on an online chat, that Arizona was still looking to acquire a starter. There, we discussed the possible candidates, writing that "It may be worth taking a flier on someone like Brad Penny on a one-year deal," and it appears that the front-office already had the wheels turning on that.

However, former D-back Penny [part of the trade to Florida for Matt Mantei - one of the most questionable deals, in hindsight, in franchise history] ended up signing with the Red Sox instead. He'll get a one-year deal at a guaranteed $5m, with another $3m in performance-related incentives. According to Buster Olney [in an ESPN Insider piece, so I don't have a link or full details], the D'Backs "took a serious run" at Penny, but I wonder if that prohibition on incentives again hampered our negotiations.

In his latest blog, Nick Piecoro floats the idea of the team aggressively going after Ben Sheets. Let's take a closer look at that possibility. The obvious downside is Sheets' track record with regard to injury. Over the past three seasons, Sheets has made a total of 72 starts - that's a couple less than Randy Johnson. Over the past few years, he's been sidelined by a litany of injuries leading to DL time, including an inner-ear infection which caused balance problems, shoulder tendinitis and a strained hamstring. [The variety is probably a good thing, perhaps suggesting Sheets is more unlucky, than suffering from a chronic problem]

Now, it's good that he did make 31 starts this season, the first since 2004 he's reached the 30-appearance mark. Not so good was the way it finished: of his final three scheduled appearances, one was skipped and he left the others after 2 and 2.1 innings respectively. Sheets admitted afterwards that he'd been suffering from forearm tightness for the preceding month. This may have been a result of his usage pattern: Sheets was ranked #8 in total Pitcher Abuse Points in the majors this year [it won't surprise you to learn Lincecum and Sabathia were #1 + 2!], which seems cavalier of the Brewers' management, given his track record.

That's something which would probably be much less of an issue in Arizona. The most "abused" pitcher for the Diamondbacks last year was Doug Davis: he only comes in at #30 on the list [142 pitchers had 100+ innings], and his low-impact mechanics suggest he's less likely to be damaged by extra pitches than a fireballer. Bryan Price and Bob Melvin otherwise seem good at managing the workload and not letting their starters over-extend themselves, which is where the PAP really mound. It's based on the cube of the number of pitches over a hundred, so 101 = one point, 102 = eight points, 103 = 27 points, and so on.

The lure is what Sheets can do, if he can stay healthy.. Since 2004, he has an ERA+ of 137, good for fifth among the sixty pitchers with 750 IP or more. That's a better number than Jake Peavy (134), Carlos Zambrano (131) or CC Sabathia (130). His K-rate over that time is an extremely healthy 8.42, and his strikeout-walk ratio is the best in the majors at 5.16 [Johan Santana is next best, all the way back at 4.56].One black mark as far as pitching for the Diamondbacks goes, is Sheets' fly-ball tendencies. His G/F ratio last season was 0.71, which ranked well below average (94th of 142), and might be problematic in a hitter-friendly park such as Chase.

Still, given his past success, it seems strange that teams have not been all over his free-agent case, but Jon Heyman of SI says, "There's no evidence Ben Sheets has received any proposals for two years or more," citing his injury risk as a concern. The Yankees, one expected suitor, appear out after getting two other big names, and the Mets are going after Derek Lowe at the moment. [though he's reportedly unimpressed with their $36m, three-year offer]. The main contender for Sheets right now appear to be the Rangers: Nick mentions the Orioles, but I haven't seen much on the newswire suggesting they've been actively pursuing the pitcher. 

The problem is, of course, money. The Diamondbacks don't have very much to spend this winter. Piecoro floats the idea of a heavily future-skewed deal like this: $4 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010, $12 million in 2011 with a team option for 2012 worth $12 million, including a $3 million buyout. That's $27m guaranteed, over three years with a team option for a fourth, with the bulk of that coming late. Doug Davis comes off the books this year, and Brandon Webb looks increasingly unlikely to be a Diamondback after 2010 [Nick reports Josh Byrnes terse answer when asked it there'd been any progress on extending Webb as, "No," followed by silence], which is when Byrnes' contract ends too. So a back-loaded contract would appear doable.

The question is, how actively should we do it? There's no denying Sheets is an injury risk, and it would take a great deal of attention to his medical records and a serious physical to establish whether the frequency of his trips to the disabled list have had any kind of cumulative effect. I should also point out that there is no independent corroboration about us pursuing Sheets beyond the Piecoro piece. However, as my conspiratorial leanings tell me, absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence, and I don't recall hearing a great deal about the arrival of Dan Haren before it happened last season. We'll see what happens, but the remaining free-agent starters are beginning to look thin, as far as quality goes. Time may be running out, if Moorad's words are to prove accurate.

Welcome to 2009, folks [assuming the 'Set Publish Date' feature of the site works as it should, and I don't get confused between 12:00 am and 12 pm]. As you read these words, I'll be working the door at our New Year's Party, which should be fun - if, perhaps, a little chilly. Going to have taken the light-rail over there after work, so that'll be an experience in itself. It'll quite take me back to the olden days, when I'd commute 40 minutes each way on the train, up to London Bridge [note: the real one, not the one now lurking in Lake Havasu!], pressed against a sweaty mass of humanity, trying to avoid any kind of eye-contact. Memories...

I don't think, personally, that 2008 will go down as being an all-around fabulous year. It had its moments, to be sure, but on a variety of levels, it was no classic. The damp squib which was the Diamondbacks' season after April, was certainly part of this, but all told, the year seemed a lot more of a slog than anything else. Be quite glad to see the back of it, and I'm optimistic that 2009 will be a good deal better. Here's to the Diamondbacks regain the NL West title, of course.

Best wishes to everyone out there for the coming year. What were we all up to on New Year's Eve? Any final thoughts on 2008? Expectations for 2009? Suspect we'll likely be surfacing late tomorrow, but unlike Christmas, I don't have to work, so that's a relief. I'll get to ease gently into the new year...well, as soon as I get to bed, and I don't think that will likely be any time soon.

The signing of Randy Johnson to a one-year contract with the Giants has been greeted with a great range of reactions. Generally, San Francisco fans have been wildly enthusiastic, while fans here are unhappy at the prospect of their future Hall of Famer playing for a divisional rival, and possibly even getting his 300th win against them. The horror. The horror. However, it's a move that I'm not particularly upset with. Sure, it'd have been nice to have him get #300 in Sedona, but how much would that possibility be worth?

This piece is certainly, to some extent, my attempt to come to terms with it - I freely admit that, if we'd signed him, there'd probably be a similar article  going the other way, and saying how marvelous it was! I've posted chunks of what follows in various places [here, DBBP, AZ Central, McCC], but this is an effort to pull together all the threads and explain the various reasons why the Big Unit's departure leaves me only slightly-stirred, rather than shaken.

1. Market value
Much has been made in some circles of the Diamondbacks offer to the future Hall of Famer, believed to be about $3m, and how this was "derisory". However, while $8-10m is easily the going rate for a league-average pitcher, that only applies when they are in the prime of their career - not their mid-forties. Here are numbers for three pitchers, with their age the following year, and their output over the previous three seasons

Pretty similar numbers, really. Now, I certainly admit there are differences. Pitcher A is David Wells from 2004-2006, who missed much of 2006's first half, coming back from knee surgery. But just like Pitcher B [Johnson from 2006-2008, natch] Wells came back strong in the second half, posting a 3.03 ERA over his ten starts in August and September and a 3.60 playoff ERA for the Padres. The net result was Boomer's tenth consecutive season with an ERA+ above 100. Before the 2007 season, however, Wells signed a one-year deal for only $3m guaranteed [albeit with $4m in potential incentives]. Has the pitching market changed so much, especially given the financial crisis which is unquestionably damping things this off-season?

Meanwhile, Pitcher C is an absolute model of durability, despite his age - which is probably enough alone, to clue you in that it's Jamie Moyer, now the proud possessor of a World Series ring as part of the Phillies rotation. He's had eight consecutive years with 32 or more starts, and an ERA+ in that final season of 118, better than the Big Unit's figure this year of 117. And yet, he just signed a contract where, even if he hits all his incentives, he'll earn a maximum of only $7.75m in 2009 - less than the Giants guaranteed the injury-prone Johnson, with a possible $5m more in incentives.

The problem, I think, with the Diamondbacks' $3m offer is not so much the dollar amount as the unwillingness to add incentive-based elements on top. This has been (and, as far as I know, still is) a long-standing policy, in the interests of providing a solid financial basis, with expenditure known in advance. That makes sense. However, it hampers the team in negotiations with any player coming off injury, or who represents any degree of risk in another way. In a case like Johnson, incentive clauses are sensible risk-mitigators, and I wish the franchise would re-think their position here. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, as the proverb says.

2. Past Performance
There's no doubt that Johnson had a stellar second-half, posting a superb 2.41 ERA, and holding batters to a .232 average. The general wisdom is that he pitched much better, once he'd recovered from the back surgery that delayed his appearance at the start of the year. However, a closer analysis of his results don't show this to be the case. Johnson actually pitched significantly better right at the start of his season, compared to the second quarter.

Starts 1-9: 51.2 IP, 3.83 ERA, K:BB 56:14, Opp: .262/.318/.441 (.759 OPS)
Starts 10-17: 46.1 IP, 6.80 ERA, K:BB 39:14, Opp: .303/.350/.511 (.861 OPS)

If anything turned around his season, it was the trip to see renowned pitching coach Tom House at the All-Star break. Johnson said. "It was hands on, him showing me what I was doing. For me, it always comes down to mechanics. Being tall, there's a lot that can go wrong." Whatever the cause, the effect was dramatic, even though his quest for #300 fell short, his post-break performances were undeniably impressive, climaxing with his complete-game effort against the Rockies on the last day of the season.

However, I wouldn't rely on that carrying forward into next season. Not with a BABIP of .278 - that's fifty-seven points below the figure from the first half, and significantly below the Diamondbacks' team average in this area, at .303. While Johnson may have been the best starter for Arizona after the break, he was also among the luckiest: contrast the BABIP for Webb (.293), Haren (.375!) and Davis (.339). Overall for the entire year, his figure was within a few points of the mean, but the second-half should probably not be relied upon as any indicator of future performance. I also note a post-break drop in his strikeout rate, from from 8.72 to 7.57 - though let's face it, even the latter figure is pretty damn good for his age!

It's also worth pointing out that, it's far and away the best half-season Johnson has had iin the past three years:

2006:
First half ERA 5.13
Second half ERA 4.85

2007
First half ERA 3.81 [only 56.2 IP]
Second half: did not pitch at all

2008
First half ERA 5.23
Second half: ERA 2.41

I know there were all manner of issues with his back, but still.... The only time since 2005 his ERA was less than double that of the brilliant second-half we saw, was his short 2007 campaign, abruptly terminated with a slide into third-base. Nice for his free-agent campaign the surge was, looking at the bigger picture, and the last three years overall, it's the obvious aberration, not the standard. Regardless of excuses or explanations one may offer, it seems more than a little dangerous to base any decision on thinking otherwise.

3. Future performance
This is, of course, what really matters, and the cold, hard fact is this: Randy Johnson is 45. He shouldn't be pitching in the major-leagues. He certainly shouldn't be pitching with any expectations of success in the major-leagues. Since 1901, do you know how many 45-year old pitchers have given their teams even 150 innings and an ERA+ above 100? Four. In 108 seasons. One spitballer (Jack Quinn, 1929), one knuckleballer (Phil Niekro, 1984), the epitome of the soft-tosser (Jamie Moyer, 2008), and Nolan Ryan. So, what Johnson is trying to do is all but unprecedented by a pitcher of his type.

The attrition rate at this point in a player's life is horrible. Since 1961, seven pitchers have thrown 400+ innings in their age 42-44 years, like Randy. Three of them never came back to play at all in their age 45 season.  The exceptions: Niekro, Moyer, Ryan and another knuckleballer, Charlie Hough. The good news for Johnson is, three of those four actually had better seasons, as measured by ERA+, at age 45 than at age 44. The bad news is, that's the two knuckleballers and the soft-tosser. Nolan Ryan - the obvious nearest mark to Johnson - fared much less well. While still above average, with an ERA+ at 103, that was a thirty-six point drop from his figure the previous year.  A repeat of this decline would send Randy to an ERA around the 5.70 mark, if he were still pitching in Chase.

However, the other side of the balance-sheet has one huge factor on  it. This is Randy Johnson. No, make this bold font and block capitals. THIS IS RANDY JOHNSON. The Big Unit has been through two back surgeries and has osteoarthritis of the knee, which has necessitated shots of an artificial lubricant on a regular basis since 2003. He had a knee brace dipped in liquid titanium. Then there's the whole 'killed a bird with his fastball' thing. If Chuck Norris wears Jack Bauer pajamas, then Jack Bauer wears Randy Johnson pajamas. His will to win is legendary. I think the only effective and permanent way to stop the Big Unit from pitching, is by removing the head, or destroying the brain. If anyone can defy time, it's this man. I wouldn't bet on him pitching like the Cy Young winner he is in 2009. But I'm not stupid enough to bet against it.

The two projection systems to have chipped in so far on Johnson's 2009 season, are Bill James and Marcel, and there's already a wide disparity in the results. The former loves the Big Unit, giving him 170 innings and a stunning 3.40 ERA. Marcel is much less optimistic, predicting 158 innings and a 4.33 ERA. This mirrors their expectations in the season just ended, though they were even further apart then: James, 3.25 ERA; Marcel 4.46 ERA. Marcel ended up being closer to reality, though neither system exactly nailed it, both being out by more than half a run.

Me? I have no idea what will happen. I can see why the Diamondbacks balked at offering Johnson any more money, especially given their limited available resources this off-season - the consensus from most sources is, we had no more than $10m. Given that, and the other holes that needed to be filled, I would be loath to spend (say) $6m of if on a 45-year old with a history of back problems. The risk of it being a write-off, any way you care to estimate it, is just too much, and for Arizona the money is better spent elsewhere. Such as on Lopez, Schoeneweis and a nice contribution towards Snyder's extension.

That said, I can see why a number of other teams - with more money to spare than us -  were prepared to take the risk. The second-half of the season was like a throwback to Johnson v.2004 and, while all the signs are that it was a mirage to a good extent, it is a hell of a beguiling prospect. It is, unquestionably, a roll of the dice, but there are worse deals going to be signed over this winter than the one that will take Johnson to San Francisco. It helps the Giants have a solid enough rotation that if his back were to explode in spring training, they could survive a lot better than many teams.

For Johnson, it may not all have been about money - he might have got more on the East coast - but it clearly was still a significant factor, despite Arizona alone having paid more than a hundred million dollars for his services in the past decade. [If you want to argue this, start with an explanation of the significant difference between earning $170m in your career, and earning $175m] I have to say, his offer  of a 50% pay-cut to us now rings somewhat hollow, when he signed with the Giants for a 47% pay-cut, based on the guaranteed amount and the $15.1m he received from us last season. Not much of a hometown discount.

I still can't bring myself to dislike Johnson. Though I'd never admit it on McCC, I'll be rooting for him to do well, as long as San Francisco remain the sub-.500 team I expect [their offense still blows chunks], and he's not pitching against us. Johnson has been responsible for so many of my best Diamondbacks' memories, most notably him coming in from the bullpen in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. Even now, the mere thought of that sets the hairs on the back of my neck doing a samba. So, for all us forty-somethings, I'm pulling for Johnson to do well - but reserve the right to say, "Told you so," if things get derailed.

And, Giants fans, here is my gift to you. We won't be needing it any more.

ESPN, and other subsequently, are reporting this is now a done deal, pending a physical.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have reached preliminary agreement on a three-year, $14.25 million guaranteed contract extension with catcher Chris Snyder, a baseball source told ESPN.com. The deal...includes a fourth-year club option that could bring the overall value to more than $20 million. Snyder has four years of major league service, so Arizona is buying out two years of salary arbitration and his first year of free agency with the three guaranteed years. If the Diamondbacks exercise their club option for 2012, they'll buy out a second year of free agency as well.

Now confirmed by Nick P, with more specifics: "Snyder will receive salaries of $3 million in 2009, $4.75 million in '10 and $5.75 million in '11. The team option for 2012 is worth $6.75 million with a $750,000 buyout."

[Previously, on 24 Fielding Metrics]

As I bravely continue on, into the more abstruse end of defensive metrics, I must confess, there is a certain amount of faith required here. The raw data and computations required for these advanced measures have a tendency to be not readily available and/or easy to understand. This makes me somewhat wary of them: if I'm told Player X is batting .375, I know where to find the information necessary to verify this. But if I'm told Player X has a UZR of +2.2, I have little or no way to check if this is correct. I just have to assume the creator hasn't misplaced a decimal point somewhere. With that caveat, let's plow in.

To go into deep analysis, you need more specific information about the precise location of every batted ball. This kind of detail is not easily found, and you tend to have to pay one of the two services for it: Stats, Inc or Baseball Info Solutions. That's at the moment: I can imagine, as we go forward, that this data will eventually become more generally available, in much the same way that detailed splits for hitters are now accessible to all. [As an aside, BIS are looking for minor-league scorekeepers for next season, to attend games and record them. However, their list of locations for 2009 includes Tucson: Might be a bit quiet around there.]

Let's start off at Baseball Musings, where David Pinto uses the batted-ball information from BIS, works out the odds of each ball being converted into an out, and uses this to come up with a Probabilistic Model of Range - the number of outs a team would be expected to get, based on where the balls were hit, and compares this to the number actually recorded. By this measure, the Diamondbacks came out almost exactly average, recording just five outs more than the were expected to get. However, there were wide variations between our performance at the various positions. Here are the figures for each, and the results for our players who had most time at the position.

• 1B: -19 outs [Jackson -8.4; Tracy -5.9]
• 2B: +21 outs [Hudson +6.3]
• 3B: -14 outs [Reynolds -11.7]
• SS: +3 outs [Drew -7.3]
• LF: +7 outs [Jackson +6.9; Byrnes -4.1]
• CF: +4 outs [Young +5.1]
• RF: +1 out [Upton +6.3]
• C: +1 out [Snyder +0.5]
• P: -4 outs [Webb +5.9; Haren -4.2; Johnson -4.9]

They also give the number of expected and actual outs by pitcher, and thus which pitchers were helped or hurt by how their defenses played behind them. The results for Arizona are: Owings +4.2; Davis +4.8; Haren +6.4; Webb -2.4; Johnson -4.2. So if it often seemed last season, that Johnson was the unfortunate victim of poor fielding, there would appear to be some factual merit to the feeling. However, as the figures for pitchers suggest, to a certain extent, he was as much a part of the problem himself as anything.

Pinto also provides charts which show how an individual player's performance varies, depending on the location of the balls hit to him. Here is one of the charts for Justin Upton, for example:

To read this chart. imagine you're at home plate. looking over at right-field. The X-axis [the horizontal one] covers the territory belonging to the RF, from center-field on the left, across to the first-base line and on into foul territory on the right. The Y-axis [vertical] counts outs made, and expected to be made, in that zone; the red line is the number actually converted and the green is what an average player would make. The dashed line is the difference between expected and actual performance. Charts are available for fly-balls, liners and two categories that cover the ground in the middle.

This may help explain the debate over Upton's defense. If you look at the chart, you will see that he has trouble with balls basically hit right at him, turning those into outs at well below average rates. But look how the line goes sharply up when the ball is hit to his left or right. And the further right or further left, the more balls above average he is turning into outs.Clearly there is evidence here for his speed and incredible athletic talent. When he can get on his horse and go get it, he can reach places few outfielders can get to. But more experienced outfielders will handle the balls hit towards them better than Justin does at this point.

You can't teach speed, or the ability to go deep into gaps and take away extra base hits.  He's already getting a lot more of those than the average fielder, and thats why the defense metrics like him. It'll be interesting to see how these charts will look as he gets better at making reads and taking even better routes to the ball, something which only comes with experience. In the meantime, I'd expect him to start handling balls hit right at him and not get caught in between on sinking liners quite so often. Thats something he can definitely learn and improve on over time, so we'll see if that middle dip fills in this season.

Similar to this is The Fielding Bible, which uses a plus/minus system to rate fielders. This was another invention of John Dewan, and works as follows. Based on the location, type (fly ball, line drive, etc.), and how hard the ball was hit, he comes up with a percentage change of an average player making the play. Say this figure is 20%. If the fielder succeeds he gets credit of 1 - 0.2 = +0.8. plays above average. If he fails, he get